It makes sense to be anxious.

We can navigate the drama at the NIH (and now NSF), but there's no use in pretending there aren't a lot of frightening and maddening unknowns

The disruptions at the National Institutes of Health are sending shockwaves through the scientific community. It is very hard to know precisely what is going on and what is happening, and there are only snippets of official communications. The optimistic, and hopefully correct, assessment, which plenty of political people I trust believe, is that this is a pause associated with the changeover in administration that will rectify itself soon. But it’s logical to fill the void with other interpretations, especially when the media is covering every little snippet they get from the inside. And many of the statements the administration has made up until now are antithetical to the ideals that have motivated science in the last decades.

As I was finishing this, this post showed up on Bluesky, so looks like NSF may have similar challenges.

I’m proud of Science’s coverage; our reporters are doing their best to keep people informed, but they’re not getting a lot of officials on the government side filling the void with solid information. The officials in the administration have probably been told not to say anything, especially before the confirmations of the HHS Secretary and NIH Director have taken place. (Note added, 1/27, 5:30 pm: After I put this up, the interim director sent out a memo that seems to provide some clarity. Whether it was sent out because the whole thing was a overblown or because they walked some of it back due to the outcry is unknown.)

Another group that isn’t saying much is the university administrators. I’m always on the side of them saying more — having learned that the hard way — but I appreciate the bind they are in. There are so many initiatives potentially coming towards them that they don’t want to address one and then make things more difficult on another. I still think silence is worse, but I understand how hard it is. Officials at the University of California system and schools have started talking, and this story in the LA Times is quite good. It makes a big difference that they’re saying something.

I’m not in those jobs anymore, so here is my guess — and none of them have told me this — of what the rest of them would say (and probably will in the coming days). “I know many of you are distressed about the stories coming out of the NIH; it is completely understandable that you are anxious. Our folks in DC are working closely with their colleagues in the federal government. At this point, we have no reason to doubt that this is a pause that will be lifted in the coming weeks to transition to the new leadership. There is much we don’t know about what will happen when the pause is lifted, and we understand that that is unnerving. We will be working as hard as we can to get information to you and to develop plans for responding to the changes that we anticipate so that our university will continue to produce knowledge and thrive in the new environment. While we disagree with and are disappointed by many of the potential changes, we will work hard to adapt and preserve as much of what we do as we can. Please contact us if you have further questions or need to talk to someone as we process all of this. Please know that we believe your concern is understandable and that we are working with all we have to respond effectively.”

What I know about anxiety

Everyone is anxious at some point in their lives. I’ve had some pretty rough-and-tumble jobs in my life, so I’ve had my share of panic attacks. Lots of people around me have, too. I learned a lot from someone who lives in Chapel Hill named Reid Wilson, who is a great therapist and has a book called “Don’t Panic.” What I learned from Reid’s book is that when you or someone else is having a panic episode, there are three things to tell yourself or someone else.

1. It’s logical for you to be anxious. Anyone experiencing what you are experiencing would be anxious.

2. Not all of the worst things that you are imagining will happen.

3. Even if they do, you’ve gotten through similar things before and can get through it.

It’s logical to be anxious

The first one is the most important. When you’re panicking, it’s easy to blame yourself for overreacting, which only makes it worse. And sometimes, people who don’t understand how anxiety works say “calm down,” which is about the worst thing you can say to someone who is anxious.

In our current situation, if you are an NIH grantee, have a grant pending, are working on an NIH project, or are working at the NIH, it is logical you would be anxious because there is a lot of uncertainty and there are plenty of ugly ideas that have been thrown around. So, it’s perfectly logical to be anxious.

You might also hear people say you shouldn’t look at the news. Of course, that is probably really good advice, but what human could follow that when their livelihood is being discussed? It is important to be compassionate about the fact that people are hanging on for information. Our reporters are working hard to get as much information as possible about everything that is going on, and we will share it as quickly, accurately, and dispassionately as we can.

Not all the worst things you can imagine will happen

There will be a scientific enterprise in the US on the other side of all of this. What it looks like has a lot of unknowns. It clearly will have big changes in terms of what we will be able to do to make sure everyone has a fair chance to participate in research, and that is deeply distressing. Some areas of research may be curtailed in favor of others. Many of us disagree with these changes; my position on inclusion in science has not changed (see here). But in the long run, members of Congress in both parties have always supported biomedical research, and the academic medical centers that are most sought after for care rely on a vibrant research effort to maintain their prestige, status, and capability.

We will adapt

In my career, we’ve had two other big disruptions. The first was the 2008 financial crisis. I was the brand new chancellor of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill then. We planned for many different kinds of challenges. There was pain with layoffs and programs being cut. But we also found ways to make up shortfalls until funding returned and markets came back. The second was the pandemic. I was at Science by then, but I watched the institutions - as bumpy as it was - figure out how to get through the disruption. There was also pain - maybe more pain than in the 2008 crisis - because the educations of a lot of students were disrupted, and the relationship between science and the public became far more strained. But a vaccine was developed, the institutions returned to activity, and research output is back up to where it was before.

We will figure out how to continue to do great research in the new environment. Creative work will be done in new areas that get funded, researchers will move into new areas just like they did in the pandemic, and the universities and academic medical centers will figure out how to bridge the shortfalls in funding, if the delay in study sections causes them. But like other disruptions, there will be pain. Programs that have made a big difference in getting people into science could be changed or eliminated, and areas of research that make life better for more people could be canceled. These were hard-fought battles and we will need to grieve if they are lost and do all we can for the people who are affected. The fact that we will adapt does not lessen the blow of these changes. Nevertheless, in the long run, the creativity and compassion of the scientific community will find a way to keep doing great work.

My mind is starting to turn to how we can adapt to the changes. I’m thinking a lot about science education and how it could change to continue to give everyone an equitable chance. But it makes sense that plenty of people are still too angry and anxious to start thinking that way yet. That makes sense. We’re in this together.